← PTM Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Water FractalTier 2
at PTM Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1354
· median 1354
· range 1354–1354
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
918
Q1 1199
Q3 1350
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Vanitas | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
